Meanwhile, cross-price elasticity measures a percentage change in SMP import quantity from a particular country corresponding to a percentage change in the export price of another country. Own-price elasticity measures the importer's responsiveness to a percentage change in the quantity demanded of SMP due to a percentage change in the exporters' SMP price. Two types of price responses are examined in this study: (1) own-price elasticity, and (2) cross-price elasticity. The objective of this study was to estimate each of the selected country's import demands for SMP from each major supplier in terms of responsiveness to changes in prices and total expenditures for SMP. Our analysis takes a closer quantitative look at SMP imports and quantifies each country's sensitivity to prices of the 4 leading global SMP suppliers to the region (New Zealand, the EU, the US, and Australia). (Other Southeast Asian countries were considered, but Thailand, Myanmar, Brunei, Cambodia, and Laos had very small SMP import volumes or several months of no trade, whereas Malaysia's SMP import demand results did not satisfy basis demand theory.) The US's SMP faces significant competition from other exporting countries. These countries represent 4 of the largest importers of SMP in Southeast Asia. This report qualitatively examines trends in SMP imports for 4 Southeast Asian countries: the Philippines, Indonesia, Singapore, and Vietnam. Singapore and Indonesia expenditures for the US SMP are elastic, which means that as expenditure and population in Southeast Asia continue to grow, a 1% increase in SMP expenditure in Singapore and Indonesia would result in 1.25 and 1.20% increases in US SMP exports.
Under the same scenario, the value of US SMP imports would decrease for Indonesia, Vietnam, and the Philippines by $4.12, $2.93, and $2.48 million, respectively however, the value of US SMP to Singapore would increase by $0.20 million. In a scenario using annual averages from 2013 to 2015 as a baseline, our findings suggest that a 10% reduction in the US price of SMP would cause Indonesia, Singapore, Vietnam, and the Philippines SMP imports from the United States to increase by 3.96, 0.44, 2.68, and 1.94 kt, respectively. Using monthly data from 2006 to 2015, Rotterdam models were used to estimate import demands for SMP in 4 Southeast Asian countries. In this study, we examined the competitiveness of US SMP in the Southeast Asian market with respect to other leading dairy exporters, including the European Union (EU-28), New Zealand, and Australia. As expenditure and population grow in Southeast Asia, it is expected that the expenditures on skim milk powder (SMP) will grow. Dairy industries in Southeast Asia are small and produce less than the domestic market demands.
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